Israel bombs Lebanon incessantly in a series of airstrikes on Monday, September 23rd, killing nearly 500 and injuring over 1,500 people, most of whom are civilians. This escalation with its northern neighbour marked a significant shift in Israel’s ongoing conflict, one that had previously been largely concentrated in Gaza for nearly a year. The Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, under the approval of Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi from an underground operation centre, targeted what it referred to as “Hezbollah strongholds” throughout southern and eastern Lebanon, including the capital, Beirut.
According to the IDF, it has conducted over 1,300 strikes in Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s firepower, mostly its rocket batteries.
The Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon signal a dangerous expansion of its military efforts into its northern frontier, which is raising concerns regarding further destabilisation in the conflict-ridden region.
Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Islamic resistance movement, responded with rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, including major towns like Haifa. The intensity of Hezbollah’s barrage has sent over a million Israeli settlers scrambling for bomb shelters, the IDF claimed.
While Israel bombs Lebanon, Tel Aviv defends its offensive as a necessary response to these attacks. However, the escalation also appears to be part of a broader Israeli strategy aimed at widening the scope of the conflict to drag its regional rival Iran into it.
The timing of this escalation is particularly noteworthy. It takes place within a week after mysterious explosions involving pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members rocked Lebanon, killing 37 and injuring nearly 3,000. Those attacks added to the crisis-ridden country’s already volatile atmosphere.
The exact cause of these explosions remains unclear, but many, including Hezbollah, point to Israeli involvement, given its technological superiority and history of covert operations in enemy territories.
Lebanon’s meek response
While Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon continued to wreak havoc, the Lebanon Armed Forces (LAF) stood conspicuously silent. Despite possessing a modest air force, the 80,000-strong LAF chose not to engage, leaving Hezbollah as the sole force resisting Israeli aggression.
While Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have been killing civilians, the LAF officials were busy hosting French diplomats and discussing the general situation in the country.
This passivity raises troubling questions about the LAF’s role in the continuously escalating conflict. Why has the LAF, which has enjoyed significant military support from the US, been so reluctant to respond as Israel bombs Lebanon?
Part of the answer lies in the LAF’s deep ties with Washington. For years, the US has considered the LAF a key partner in the region, especially as a counterweight to Hezbollah’s influence.
The US Department of Defense has lauded the LAF’s partnership with the US military.
However, since Lebanon’s economy collapsed in 2019, the LAF has struggled with financial constraints, relying heavily on US aid to pay its soldiers. Apart from the US, it also appealed to the West and the rich Gulf monarchies.
In early 2023, the Joe Biden administration rerouted $72m to the LAF to help it meet payroll obligations. Between 2006 and 2023, the US has provided the LAF with aid totalling $3bn.
These financial ties have significantly constrained the LAF’s actions. The recent tour of its chief to the US has strengthened the doubt.
General Joseph Aoun, the LAF’s chief, visited the US in June this year. In Washington, General Aoun met senior military officials. They reportedly pressed him to push Hezbollah towards de-escalation at the southern border of Lebanon from where it was firing rockets into the occupied Palestinian territories to avenge the Gaza genocide.
The seriousness of the US regarding pushing Hezbollah away from the southern border could be seen when Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown Jr met General Aoun to push Washington’s agenda.
After his US tour, General Aoun has made it clear through his actions that his forces will not engage in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah operates. General Aoun appears to have agreed to limit the LAF’s involvement in the conflict, likely to preserve its strategic relationship with the US.
From a practical point of view, General Aoun’s LAF has become a weak army. Many of its personnel have been resigning due to low wages and the soldiers have been allowed to do side gigs, like driving taxis, to meet their expenses. The general knows his army, even if deployed against Israel to stop the airstrikes, can’t make any difference because they lack supplies and US weaponry can’t be used against its ally.
Thus, the onus of saving Israel has fallen upon the Islamic resistance Hezbollah, which itself is quite disarrayed and isn’t versed in high-tech warfare.
Hezbollah under siege
With the LAF sidelined, Hezbollah has borne the brunt as Israel bombs Lebanon. Despite its reputation as a formidable resistance force, Hezbollah faces monumental challenges. While its fighters have retaliated with rocket fire and drone strikes, they are ill-equipped to counter Israel’s advanced military technology.
Moreover, last week’s pager and walkie-talkie blasts have proved that Hezbollah also lacks a strong intelligence unit and has no technological match with Israel.
For Hezbollah, the only way to retaliate is by firing rockets and drones. However, much to IDF’s respite, the Hezbollah projectiles seldom hit the military targets within the occupied Palestinian territories.
Monday’s rocket attacks, which saw Hezbollah fire 180 rockets into northern Israel, barely scratched the surface of Israel’s defences. Most of the projectiles landed in open areas, causing minimal damage. Only one person was reported injured in northern occupied territories. By contrast, Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have decimated Hezbollah’s rocket-launching infrastructure, wiping out weapons caches that the group had spent two decades building.
The disparity between Hezbollah and the IDF is stark. While Hezbollah relies on basic Katyusha rocket batteries and drones supplied by Iran, Israel boasts state-of-the-art military hardware capable of executing precise, devastating strikes. Hezbollah’s fighters, motivated by religious fervour, lack professional military training. This technological and strategic imbalance has left Hezbollah struggling to mount an effective resistance.
What comes next?
Israel has chosen a perfect timing for its Lebanon campaign. As the United Nations General Assembly convenes in New York, the world’s attention will likely turn to the broader Middle East conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has seized this moment to shift the world’s focus from Gaza to Lebanon, using the “war against Hezbollah” as a pretext for escalating violence.
He is confident that the US will strongly stand with it due to the presidential elections. There won’t be any trouble from the rest of the world.
While Gaza remains under siege, with Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon now extending to Beirut, the conflict has taken a new and more dangerous turn. The strikes on the Lebanese capital mark a dramatic escalation, one that could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s stability.
For Hezbollah, the future looks bleak. With its communications network crippled by the recent pager and walkie-talkie explosions and its military infrastructure severely damaged by Israeli airstrikes, the group’s ability to resist Israeli aggression has been significantly weakened.
Lebanon’s last hope
In this dire scenario, Lebanon’s only real hope lies in de-escalation. However, any cessation of hostilities will likely be dictated by Israel, due to the leverage it enjoys, leaving Hezbollah in a precarious position. If Hezbollah is forced to retreat from southern Lebanon, the US-Israel nexus will emerge as the dominant power in the region. Such an outcome would be a major blow to Iran, which has long supported Hezbollah as part of its broader strategy to extend influence in West Asia.
Yet Iran, too, is in a vulnerable position. Tehran’s new president, Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, has pursued a non-confrontational foreign policy, focusing on attracting investment and rebuilding the economy. With Israel’s attacks on Iranian interests escalating this year, Iran is unlikely to push for further confrontation in Lebanon.
For now, Hezbollah can only hope for support from its regional allies, including Iraqi militias and the Yemeni Houthis. But neither group has the resources or firepower to turn the tide as Israel bombs Lebanon. They can’t come to Hezbollah’s rescue.
